CPV RETAIL BLOG

February 21, 2025

Rethinking Energy Strategy: The Case for Diversified Power Sources in the U.S. Grid

PJM Regulatory Review

  • In a 3-1 vote last week, with one Commissioner abstaining, the FERC approved the Reliability Resource Initiative (RRI) proposed by PJM. This initiative aims to expedite the process for a limited number of “high reliability” projects to maneuver through the PJM queue at a faster pace. While this appeared on the surface to violate the Commission’s principle of nondiscriminatory open access, FERC ultimately decided that PJM’s rationale met the just and reasonable standard.
  • The Sierra Club’s recent filing with FERC stipulated that their agreement with Talen will not impede the operation of Brandon Shores ability to operate after 12/31/2025, provided it operates under the parameters established in the Reliability-Must-Run (RMR) agreement with PJM. This agreement sets the stage for the Commission’s acceptance of PJM’s 205 filing which will allow both Brandon Shores and Wagner to be included in the reliability requirements for the next two Base Residual Auctions.
  • PJM issued a cold weather alert due to the ongoing cold blast enveloping the country. Meanwhile, FERC is examining actions taken during the January 19-24 polar vortex ascension into the lower 48.

Energy Market Update

  • Relentless and often record-breaking cold temperatures are significantly driving up cash prices. In the Northeast, indices (TETCO M3 and Transco Z6 NY) are in the mid-teens and Algonquin City-Gate is pushing $20/MMBTU. Correspondingly, spot power prices are elevated, with PJM on-peak trading above $120/MWH, leading to increased volatility seen across the forward curves.
  • Storage levels are being drawn down at a rapid pace with end-of-season inventories likely heading below 1.5 TCF lending support to summer prices above $4.00/MMBTU.
  • US LNG exports continue to ratchet higher as Plaquemines LNG Terminal reaches 1.5 BCF/D and total LNG exports reach 16 BCF/D.
  • US production seems to have settled into a comfortable level straddling 105 BCF/D as producers remain cautious about growing production even as storage inventories are likely to hit a multi-year low by the end of March. The groundhog turned out to be correct this year!
  • The Trump Administration is looking for ways to streamline approvals for energy projects, although the uncertainty around environmental regulations and rules is causing long-term planning issues for market participants.