CPV RETAIL BLOG

October 29, 2024

Market Dynamics and the Urgency of Co-location Decisions

By: Bob Barron, Vice President, Energy Management, CPV

PJM Regulatory Review

  • The US Supreme Court recently rejected “emergency applications” by various industry constituents (IPPs and utilities) who asked the court to delay implementing an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule that caps carbon emissions from power plants.
  • PJM has asked the FERC to provide guidance by November 8 regarding its recent filing requesting a delay for the 2026/2027 BRA by 6 months (June/2025). A Section 205 filing that addresses all the issues contained in the underlying complaint will take more time to prepare given the technical complexities that have been raised.
  • PJM filed a response defending its existing market rules and treatment of RMR resources to the Public Interest Organization’s RMR Complaint. PJM posited that the increase in prices in the most recent BRA was the result of three prior BRA prints that were low, and thus, the increase is simply a response to supply and demand dynamics.
  • States like Pennsylvania are taking a renewed interest in electricity demand trends and data center requirements, which are likely to impact overall reliability conditions. Ensuring adequate power supply is becoming critical for continued economic growth in the PJM footprint, and states are not sitting idly by until new plants are announced.

Energy Market Update

  • October is expected to be one of the mildest months in the last 100 years. Storage injections have consistently exceeded expectations, and it’s likely that these injections will continue into November. As a result, the final inventory balances are anticipated to surpass 4 TCF.
  • Despite outages reaching 70,000 MW, the benign weather pattern has left the PJM market without an upward catalyst, as volatility continues to decrease.
  • Gas production remains at the 100 BCF/D level as producers continue to limit volumes while waiting for the start of the winter heating season.
  • With the election approaching, analysts are assessing how potential changes in energy regulations could impact the market. Uncertainty around environmental regulations complicates long-term planning, especially as demand rises and the generation queue remains stagnant.
  • The capital costs for energy infrastructure projects are steadily increasing, which is putting additional pressure on the growth of thermal generation across the US grid. Orders for turbines, transformers, and other large components needed for grid upgrades are currently backlogged by several years, adding to the uncertainty regarding when new resources will be available to meet the forecasted growth in power demand.
  • A nuclear power renaissance appears to have the backing from technology companies, who have publicly committed billions to develop new projects, as well as bring back mothballed plants.

Forward Pricing