Today, the October NYMEX contract settles, and November becomes a prompt month, signaling the transition to cold weather focus mode for market participants. This is when everyone turns their attention to winter planning and wonders if this will be the year that The Farmer’s Almanac delivers its never-ending prognostications of expected cold. The hopes and dreams of hyper-volatility are dancing in traders’ minds notwithstanding the disappointment of the prior two seasons’ extreme warmth. ​

We’re now questioning what a “normal” winter means and whether storage inventories will be sufficient to support a level of sustained demand both in the United States and globally. The global gas market has not been sufficiently tested by contemporaneous peaks and constrained LNG supplies.​

In the wake of the Ukraine invasion, Europe must evaluate whether the swift transition from Russian pipeline supplies to US LNG will be effective, or if the system remains too fragile to endure a protracted period of cold. The tug-of-war between Asia and Europe for spot LNG cargoes has, so far, been a benign affair. Europe’s early filling of storage has allowed for additional available cargoes to be detoured to Asia and satisfy growing spot demand.​

The paths are almost Monte Carlo simulation-like with endless possibilities. That’s what makes navigating the energy industry both challenging and exciting, especially as we prepare for the upcoming winter season. Weather and pricing can be unpredictable, making it essential to set up your portfolio to handle various outcomes. By anticipating fluctuations in demand and supply, especially in extreme weather conditions, you can mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.​

Longer-term pricing is significantly influenced by winter trends—think rising demand for heating fuels or shifts in renewable energy generation. This is where our expertise comes in. CPV Retail has the assets and seasoned professionals to help you tailor programs that align with your specific risk appetite and business goals.​

​Partnering with CPV Retail means you’ll have a dedicated team focused on developing strategies that not only weatherproof your portfolio but also position you for success in a dynamic market. Let’s embrace the challenges together and enjoy the benefits of a well-prepared energy strategy this winter and beyond.